The Science of the Sleeper Pick

Fantasy Football spends a lot of time on the concept of the sleeper pick. Successful sleeper picks are generally the difference between fantasy football glory and fantasy football despair. Anyone who is just starting out should take the time to read this article and figure out what sleepers are, how to locate them, and knowing when to cut them if they aren’t living up to the hype.

Sleeper picks reference players who are due for a big breakout. General draft strategy dictates that you should generally invest in two or three high potential players that have never quite made it to fantasy stardom yet. From year to year inconsistency reigns supreme, so draft strategy based on previous stats will rarely work. You need to think in terms of who is poised to break out, as the future is really all that matters.

How do you recognize sleepers? Since practically everyone in the NFL has the talent to be a major contributor, sleeper success relies on getting an opportunity. You need to realize that a good portion of sleeper picks will fail due to their sheer volatility, but the one that makes it will be worth the low draft pick. Sleepers usually arise from replacement of a player due to trades, retirements, injuries, or just letting the  ทางเข้าufabet previous player go from his contract. New players are thrust into the forefront, and it is their responsibility to pick up the slack of the missing player. These are the people you want to grab, especially if you have seen glimpses of success in the past. I remember watching Mike Wallace go deep again and again in 2009, thinking that if he would ever get an opportunity in the NFL he would be a monster. Brandon Lloyd for a few games with the Bears in 2007 showed glimpses of his speed and athleticism, and he just never received the opportunity. Fast forward to 2010, and Lloyd and Wallace are two of the best receivers in the AFC, and really the NFL. How could we see this coming? The Steelers just lost Santonio Holmes to the Jets, and the Broncos just lost Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins. As a result, voids were created on these teams, and someone needed to step up and take control. The players with the most ability and best work ethic generally will get the first chance, which in Wallace’s case proved to be true. Lloyd was an afterthought in the Denver passing game, but he developed chemistry with Orton and really took control. In general, voids created by players leaving are the best ways to find good sleepers.

The addition of new teammates can also create sleepers. If a team is able to acquire a good quarterback when they previously